Download Capital Returns: Investing Through the Capital Cycle: A by Edward Chancellor PDF

By Edward Chancellor

This e-book makes use of various examples to illustrate how the capital cycle method of investments works, and the way it has supplied traders with market-beating returns during the last decade.

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Extra resources for Capital Returns: Investing Through the Capital Cycle: A Money Manager’s Reports 2002–15

Sample text

Each individual’s financial incentive was to catch more fish to repay debts, and over-fishing became commonplace. As 30 CAPITAL RETURNS the price of fish declined, fishermen became caught in a “prisoner’s dilemma” and opted to land more fish. “Cod wars” broke out over rights to fish, and the industry went into crisis. The first government to intervene in the cod wars was Iceland, which asserted sovereignty over its coastal waters to a distance of one mile, then four miles, then 50 miles and, in 1973, 200 miles.

Given all this, it may come as a surprise to some that we are overcoming our prejudice and have been increasing our exposure to the brewing sector, now owning positions in three of the four listed brewers – Heineken, Carlsberg and AB Inbev – in European portfolios, and in the other – SABMiller – in UK-only portfolios. The acquisition activity which has driven down returns sharply over the past few years has been part of a wider industry consolidation. ) InBev acquisition of US market leader Anheuser-Busch in the same year.

Initially, the miners’ response to improved conditions in their industry appears to have been quite controlled – capital expenditure relative to cash flow somewhat declined in the early 2000s as commodity prices began to rise. Nor was there a bubble in the stock market. Mining shares performed well because their fundamentals had never been better. The bad news is that commodity industry is showing signs of a classic capital cycle peak – higher returns on invested capital are attracting more 4 According to Clarksons Research, dry bulk new building orders rose from 33m deadweight tonnes in 2004 to a peak of 164m tonnes in 2007, falling back to 31m in 2009.

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