By T. H. Donaldson (auth.)
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Extra info for Lending in International Commercial Banking
A category of 'super prime' also appears, at least on very short term borrowings, when money is particularly easy. Banks will adjust their criteria differently to fit the patterns of their business. It is easier to vary the rate when the prime element is not too clearly identified; thus interbank rates can be more flexibly treated if the borrower knows only his all in cost; in the US (or in the UK on overdrafts) the borrower knows the exact relationship of his borrowing to prime and is more likely to resist an adverse move, or appreciate a favourable one.
Forecasts, to have any chance of being even approximately right, must be reconcilable with the past. Where an apparent inconsistency represents a genuine change in trend, the reason must be fully understood to assess the likelihood of the trend persisting, changing or reversing and the likely impact on the borrower. THE TECHNIQUE OF GOING CONCERN ANALYSIS The analytical starting point, therefore, is the balance sheet. However, analysis is not static and looks at the trend as much as the absolute level.
Although largely subjective, judgment of political climate and will is vital in assessing a country's creditworthiness. An alternative starting point - the external financial position involves a detailed assessment of the performance and outlook of the balance of payments. The breadth and diversity of exports, their relative price trends, reputation for delivery and reliability and the extent to which other countries compete for key markets will be considered for a developed industrial country.